tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post4834742374288932623..comments2024-02-21T05:24:38.745-05:00Comments on Arabian Punch Front: Rio 2016 - Notes from Podium TrainingArabian Punch Fronthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01735831811715512825noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-10131511816100425492016-08-05T13:18:28.707-04:002016-08-05T13:18:28.707-04:00The thing is I'm not sure Hong gets gold even ...The thing is I'm not sure Hong gets gold even if she lands. Simone's Cheng has been getting 15.8-15.9, which I think is a realistic expectation for her in event finals. The best Hong has ever scored on the Cheng is 15.6, and usually she is more around 15.4-15.5, sometimes lower. Simone's Amanar is pretty consistently at around a 16 internationally. If Simone can be expected to gain an average of .3 on the Cheng, that means Hong is going to have to score better than a 16.3 on the triple, which is an E score of 9.5. Even on the Amanar, she has only achieved that E score once in the past two years. I think she has enough form deductions in the air that she would basically have to stick or take a .1 step on the landing in order to maybe pull it off. That's not realistic based on what I saw. <br /><br />So, even with this harder vault, she either needs to show a significantly improved Cheng or she needs Simone to take a .3 step on her Amanar, which happens once in a while but not often. <br /><br />That's fundamentally why I don't get it. People are acting like she'll be a lock for gold if she lands the vault, but, mathetmatically, that doesn't appear to be the case. The increased difficulty, when you get right down to it, is only worth .25 to her average score, and she's farther behind Simone than that if you just average their Cheng/Amanar combo. Even if Hong lands the triple, she still needs Simone to be subpar in order to win gold. And if Hong doesn't land the vault, no medal at all. Why take the risk?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18387851330889174614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-83250613344938945382016-08-04T23:43:34.792-04:002016-08-04T23:43:34.792-04:00Laurie surprised me today and I think that's t...Laurie surprised me today and I think that's the only reason I'm considering the others. She was shaky on bars, there's no doubt but it affected her again on beam. I think she's deserving of that 3rd spot and glad she has it but I don't think it's an easy event final for her to make. On the other hand, I think Laurie going after beam will actually be good for her scores.<br /><br />Hong's TTY. Ugh. Where to even start! I agree with everything you've said though. Landing = gold. Fall = no medal. Honestly, I think the vault final is going to come down to the athlete order more than anything. If Hong is after Paseka or Biles, she'll be able to think about throwing it. I'm glad that we're actually seeing it since it's been rumored for so long! Not what I imagine Biles' or Maroney's would have looked like but it exists... kinda.Arabian Punch Fronthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01735831811715512825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-24354930078569111332016-08-04T23:40:12.249-04:002016-08-04T23:40:12.249-04:00Yes, Iit should read like "What about Gabby? ...Yes, Iit should read like "What about Gabby? Why is it not between Gabby and Laurie?"Arabian Punch Fronthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01735831811715512825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-24121108264981508252016-08-04T23:38:22.423-04:002016-08-04T23:38:22.423-04:00Yes there is.Yes there is.Arabian Punch Fronthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01735831811715512825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-10143878846188800252016-08-04T22:18:57.262-04:002016-08-04T22:18:57.262-04:00There is a two per country rule. There is a two per country rule. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08670734996916483389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-26823320804595304992016-08-04T22:18:56.573-04:002016-08-04T22:18:56.573-04:00There is a two per country rule. There is a two per country rule. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08670734996916483389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-83484666883456964592016-08-04T22:12:10.092-04:002016-08-04T22:12:10.092-04:00I think Nancy meant it's between Aly and Lauri...I think Nancy meant it's between Aly and Laurie for the last all around spot, as in Simone and Gabby are for sure competing AA. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4029743900531536148.post-51592990895497927772016-08-04T21:01:01.810-04:002016-08-04T21:01:01.810-04:00I'm actually surprised by how you put Laurie o...I'm actually surprised by how you put Laurie on beam. I think Laurie is certainly better than Aly and Gabby on beam. She has outscored them all year I believe. Laurie outscored Simone 3/4 times this summer in fact. I would expect Laurie to be in beam final. I think she could very well beat Simone and the rest of the field.<br /><br />Hong is "working" the TTY but it looks very scary and I do not believe she landed it. Even if she lands, Simone would still be favored to win based on superior E scores, though it wouldn't be a sure thing. I think it's pretty fool hearty for Hong to try it. She gains less than 50% chance of getting a medal if she lands the vault, and if she doesn't land, she won't medal.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18387851330889174614noreply@blogger.com