World Championship Predictions 2015: August Edition

Prior to the US domestic season, I tried to come up with my Worlds team and see how it would change through the season and comparing it with the final result. I've decided to do it for a few more teams as well. I tried my best to put the team finalists as the first three listed followed by a semicolon but for some countries it just didn't work.

USA
Simone Biles, Aly Raisman, Gabby Douglas, Bailie Key, Maggie Nichols, Alyssa Baumann
VT: Aly, Maggie, Simone; Bailie/Gabby
UB: Bailie, Gabby, Simone; Aly, Maggie
BB: Bailie, Maggie, Gabby, Aly, Simone
FX: Gabby, Maggie, Bailie, Aly, Simone
Alt: Mykayla Skinner, Madison Kocian/Ashton Locklear, Kyla Ross

Why Alyssa and why not Kocian? Why isn't Alyssa even competing? I'm gonna be honest. I think the USA can just send 5 and make the 6th person an alternate. Pre-Classics, I had Kyla in the spot. I now realize that she's a bit redundant as an UB/BB worker. The spot can better be optimized with a specialist with EF/medal potential routines. The issue with bringing a specialist is that one of these top 5 girls will miss out on the AA. Do you take Aly out of bars despite her being one of the top 4 consistently? Would you take Gabby off of VT to allow Skinner to attempt to qualify for event finals? It's very difficult so in this moment, I say 5 members + a faux alternate. As the other countries start their competitions, we'll get a better idea of the other team makeups. I picked Alyssa over Madison Kocian because Kocian is pretty breakable and Alyssa can substitute anywhere really.

RUS
Aliya Mustafina, Viktoria Komova, Daria Spiridonova, Maria Paseka, Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Kharenkova
VT: Aliya, Ksenia, Maria P; Viktoria, Maria K
UB: Viktoria, Aliya, Daria; Maria P, Maria K
BB: Maria K, Vika, Aliya; Ksenia, Daria
FX: Ksenia, Vika, Aliya; Daria, Maria K
Alt: Seda Tutkhalyan

With Sosnitskaya out, the Russian picture became a littler clearer. Hopefully Ksenia can manage to stay healthy. She has been dealing with some dental issues but no gymnastics injuries from what I've seen. The final spot really comes down to Seda Tutkhalyan and Maria Kharenkova. Unfortunately, I feel like the Rodionenko's favor Kharenkova to Seda. Seda would offer an additional vault score and EF potential so if Afan or anyone else is out, Seda is surely my first choice alternate. Russian Cup is coming up and we'll have a better idea of Kharenkova vs Tutkhalyan. Could they both go and leave Spiridonova out? I think it's possible but they'd be sacrificing a possible EF medal... Granted, if it's not Daria, I'm sure we can find a second Russian to make EF.

ROU
Catalina Ponor, Larisa Iordache, Andreea Iridon, Andreea Munteanu, Silvia Zarzu, Laura Jurca
VT: Silvia, Laura, Larisa; Catalina
UB: Laura, Andreea I, Larisa; #sendhelp
BB: Andreea M, Catalina, Larisa; Andreea I, Laura
FX: Laura, Silvia, Catalina, Larisa
Alt: Stefania Stanila

I posted this on twitter and the number one comment was no Diana. I'd love to send Bulimar but if it's just for uneven bars, I don't think it's worth the risk. I made Jurca the 2nd AAer with Larisa. Other than beam and floor, Romania actually struggles to get 4 competitive athletes on vault and uneven bars. You could take out Zarzu or Larisa to make room for Diana but then you use one floor and vault athlete. Not sure Romania can afford that risk. If Did has another event, that would change things for me. Stanila can do UB so she's my number one choice for alternate.




ITA
Vanessa Ferrari, Erika Fasana, Carlotta Ferlito, Martina Rizzelli, Tea Ugrin, Elisa Meneghini/Enus Mariani
VT: Martina, Vanessa, Erika; Carlotta, Tea
UB: Elisa/Enus, Carlotta, Martina; Vanessa, Erika
BB: Carlotta, Vanessa, Erika; Tea, Martina
FX: Carlotta, Vanessa, Erika; Tea, Martina
Alt: Giorgia Campana

Vanessa, Erika, and Carlotta are pretty much locks. Italy struggles on UB so Martina is crucial there. Elisa Meneghini and Enus Mariani have been injured but their prowess on UB could be utilized here. Enus is a better UB worker than Elisa based on previous performances BUT Elisa can be used in other events as well so I predict the last spot being decided between them. Giorgia Campana is also a strong UB worker but she has struggled on bars and excelled on beam. If she can get her bars back to where it's been, she'll have a shot at this team. Otherwise, Elisa and Enus are ranking above her. Italy will have 2 meets before Worlds so we'll get a better picture of Elisa and Enus' comeback status.

GBR
Ellie Downie, Becky Downie, Claudia Fragapane, Amy Tinkler, Rebecca Tunney, Kelly Simm
VT: Kelly, Ellie, Claudia; Amy
UB: Ellie, Rebecca T, Becky D; Amy, Claudia
BB: Claudia, Ellie, Becky D; Kelly, Amy
FX: Amy, Ellie, Claudia; Kelly
Alt: Tyesha Mattis, Charlie Fellows, Georgina Hockenhull

This one was really tricky for me because the status of two very important members is unknown - Rebecca Tunney and Ruby Harrold. Then, Tyesha Mattis is also a hopeful breakout star but we haven't seen her compete more than UB yet this year. Claudia and Ellie are the clear AAers at the moment. Tinkler could be one of them. Tunney could be one of them but I just have no clue what her status is right now so this was a shot in the dark.

CAN
Ellie Black, Isabela Onyshko, Maegan Chant, Victoria Woo, Madison Copiak, Brittany Rogers
VT: Maegan, Brittany, Ellie; Isabela, Madison
UB: Brittany, Victoria, Isabela; Ellie, Madison
BB: Maegan, Isabela, Ellie; Madison, Victoria
FX: Maegan, Isabela, Ellie; Madison, Victoria
Alt: Jordyn Pedersen

And I didn't put Brittany just because I love her (because I don't!). I think this team has an UB deficit that Brittany could solve and can also improve the VT standings.  Ellie and Isabela are the 2 AA gymnasts. Madison and Victoria will likely battle it out in trainings for VT/UB prelims spots which could affect if one of them does AA.

NED
Lieke and Sanne Wevers, Eythora Thorsdottir, Noel van Klaveren, Celine van Gerner, Lisa Top
VT: Lisa, Noel, Eythora/Lieke/Celine
UB: Noel, Lieke, Sanne; Eythora, Celine
BB: Eythora, Lieke, Sanne; Lisa, Celine
FX: Eythora, Lieke, Lisa; Noel, Celine
Alt: Vera van Pol

Praying to the gym gods to keep Noel safe (well everyone!). The biggest issue with the Netherlands is their consistency. I'm hoping it's improved since the athletes have seen so much success this year. The difficulty is there, the execution just needs to match it.

What do you think?